Modelo econométrico regional para Cataluña, Un

Abstract

El trabajo presentado como tesis doctoral está subdividido en tres grandes apartados. En el primero de ellos se realiza un análisis de los antecedentes, terminología y características básicas de la modelización regional y en especial de la econométrica. En la segunda se estudian las distintas etapas de las que consta el trabajo econométrico (especificación, estimación, validación y utilización) para los modelos econométricos más importantes existentes (principalmente estadounidenses) destacando aquellos aspectos que puedan incidir en lo que ha sido el gran objetivo del trabajo: la construcción de un modelo econométrico regional para Cataluña. En la tercera parte se elabora el citado modelo estudiándose variables referidas a la producción y mercado de trabajo: índice de producción industrial catalán: empleo de los sectores industrial-construcción y terciario; empleo no agricola; población activa, desempleo, tasa de paro, empleo total y tasa de actividad.

<I>The principal aim of this thesis was to construct the first version of a uniregional econometric model for Catalonia. This work must be considered within the Hispalink Project for regional modelling for the different Autonomic Communities in Spain. Previous to the construction of this model, it was necessary to know the real state of the regional econometric modelling. That's the reason why the exposition was divided into three parts.<br/><br/>In the first part, we studied the most important characteristics of regional modelling, setting a comparative analysis among the three types of models: Economic Base, Input-Output and econometrics. Afterwards, the antecedents and general characteristics of the latest, were analyzed because it's the type used on this piece of work. In the last chapter of this first part, we studied the terminology of macroeconometric models used all through the thesis and the opposing concepts like regional-multiregional, the regional size and the type of the analysis (predictive, descriptive,...). The different approach to multiregional modelling has a special importance: Top-Down, Bottom-Up, interregional and Regional-National.<br/><br/>The second part is devoted to the comparative study of the uni- or multiregional econometric models published, mainly localized in the USA. <br/>The analysis was completed from both the temporal point of view and the analysis of the different phases of the econometric work: model specification, estimation, validation and utilisation. The variables were grouped into blocks, the most usual being production, labor market-employment, personal income, investment and public sector.<br/><br/>From all this information, in the third part we constructed a first version for a regional econometric model for Catalonia. It consists of 18 variables (9 endogenous and 9 predeterministic), and 5 equations and 4 identities. To all these expressions, the equations and variables necessary to make an Industrial Production Index (IPICAT) must be added. Other basic characteristics of the model are the unidirectional causality and the periodicity adopted (quarterly). Endogenous variables. IPICAT, employment sectors (Industrial-construction and services), unemployment, labor force, rates of unemployment and activity, non-agricultural employment, total employment.</I>