Essays on Fiscal and Monetary Policies

Abstract

The general objective of the doctoral thesis is to evaluate the effects of macroeconomic policies on the economy and the environment. Chapter 2 examines the composition of fiscal policy and its transmission mechanisms on various macroeconomic aggregates in open economies. Chapter 3 examines the transmission mechanisms of conventional and unconventional monetary policies on the macroeconomic aggregates in open economies. Chapter 4 explores the interactions among macroeconomic policies, the energy market and environmental quality. The analysis of the effects of fiscal and monetary policies on the economy and the environment is conducted using the structural vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology. This procedure is suitable when the variables of interest are endogenous, which is typically the case with macroeconomic and environmental variables. Structural VAR models allow to examine the dynamic interactions among the variables and feedback effects, through the impulse response functions and the variance decomposition.

Chapter 2 provides a detailed examination on the composition of fiscal policy and its transmission mechanisms on various macroeconomic aggregates for two Anglo-Saxon countries, the United States and the United Kingdom, over the period 1964-2017. While research on fiscal policy has been substantial, the study of the transmission mechanisms and effects of tax revenue and government spending components in an open economy framework has received less attention. This chapter contributes to the literature on the disaggregated analysis of fiscal policy in open economies. We examine the composition of fiscal policy by asking whether government spending disaggregation matters for the transmission of fiscal policy on the macroeconomic aggregates. In addition, the chapter explores the role of the exchange rate and the trade balance in the transmission of shocks to tax revenue and government spending components. We estimate the effects of disaggregated fiscal policy shocks on the macroeconomic aggregates. Using the recursive approach, we identify a tax revenue and a government spending component shock that rotates between (i) government non-wage consumption (ii) government wage consumption (iii) public investment. The conducted analysis reveals that the disaggregation of fiscal policy matters since each fiscal instrument implies different transmission channels and effects on the real economy. It therefore seems essential to disaggregate government spending into its main components to uncover significant and different patterns that an aggregated analysis cannot reveal. However, as expected, the effects of government spending components on certain economic variables are weak and insignificant. In addition, our findings suggest that fiscal policy can be operative, besides the interest rate channel, via an exchange rate and trade balance channels. Considering an open economy framework is therefore essential since a part of the fiscal stimulus propagates abroad through external channels. The results occurring from this chapter have several policy implications. First, government non-wage consumption increases could have contractionary effects on the real economy as observed in the countries and the period considered in our analysis. Our findings also indicate that, as expected, public wage policies have a greater impact on the labor market than changes in the other components of government spending, while they have a relatively small effect on the output. Moreover, government efforts to stimulate the real economy through the increase in public investment should be accompanied by other types of macroeconomic policy instruments in order to offset the crowding out effect on private activity. Besides, the examination of tax revenue reveals different implications. In the United States, tax revenue cuts can stimulate economic activity and increase prices in the short run. In contrast, tax revenue cuts do not seem to be effective in stimulating the United Kingdom economy.

Chapter 3 examines the transmission mechanisms of conventional and unconventional monetary policies on the macroeconomic aggregates in open economies. While research on monetary policy has been substantial, less attention was given to the study of the role of stock prices and consumer expectations in the transmission of monetary policy. In addition, very few studies have analysed the effects of monetary policy in open economies outside the euro area. Taking this into account, the analysis is carried out for two non-EMU countries, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, over the period 1990-2017. First, we examine whether conventional monetary policy is operative, besides other well-known channels, via a stock price and consumer confidence channels. We then explore the role of long-term interest rates, exchange rates and stock prices in the transmission of unconventional monetary policy. The chapter proposes two distinct structural VAR models based on a novel specification. The baseline model for the case of conventional monetary policy covers the pre-2009 period and is estimated using quarterly data, while the baseline model for the case of unconventional monetary policy covers the post-2009 period and is estimated using monthly data. The official bank policy rate and central bank’s reserve assets are used as instruments for conventional and unconventional monetary policy. Considering stock prices is of key importance since monetary policy decisions have an impact on financing conditions and market expectations, thus leading to adjustments of asset prices. If central banks are forward looking, the monetary policy instrument cannot be properly identified unless expectations are taken into account. Our modelling approach consists in augmenting the structural VAR model with a forward-looking informational variable of near-term development in economic activity and several foreign exogenous variables to control for international spillovers. For the case of conventional monetary policy, the consumer confidence indicator is used since it contains important information used by central banks about consumer expectations as regards future economic conditions. For the case of unconventional monetary policy, the long-term government bond yields are used to capture consumer expectations about future short-term interest rates. The conducted analysis reveals that the inclusion of a forward-looking informational variable of near-term development in economic activity and a financial variable such as the stock prices are of key importance for the monetary policy assessment. We provide evidence for the existence of a consumer confidence channel in the transmission mechanism of conventional monetary policy. An expansionary policy enhances households’ perception with regards future economic conditions, which may result in a tendency to consumer more and save less. Thus, changes in consumer confidence can potentially amplify the effects of monetary policy on the real economy. Moreover, the results indicate that the long-term government bond yields have an important role in the transmission mechanism of unconventional monetary policy. Although these results have limited policy implications, they reveal the importance of considering these specific transmission channels and controlling for global supply and demand shocks in order to provide a comprehensive analysis of the effects of monetary policy. Overall, our findings indicate that conventional and unconventional monetary policies were effective in providing temporary stimulus to the economies of Switzerland and the United Kingdom during the considered periods.

Chapter 4 examines the interactions among macroeconomic policies, the energy market and environmental quality. These interactions and channels among them are studied through structural VAR models based on a macroeconomic framework including the energy market. This chapter builds on the growing literature analysing the links between macroeconomic policies and environmental variables. It examines for the first time how the implementation of macroeconomic policies, that aim to stimulate the economy, may also affect the quality of the environment along the business cycle and the specific role of energy markets as transmission channels. On the one hand, the chapter evaluates the implications of macroeconomic policies on the price of non-renewable energy and the use of both renewable and non-renewable energy. On the other hand, it assesses the influence of fiscal policy components, conventional and unconventional monetary policies on greenhouse gas emissions generated by the energy sector. The empirical analysis is conducted for Switzerland and the United Kingdom over the period 1990-2016. The geographical and physical characteristics of these two countries make them particularly vulnerable to global warming. For the case of monetary policy, the analysis is explicitly made on sub-periods since the implementation of quantitative easing can be viewed as a new monetary policy regime. The results occurring from Chapter 4 reveals several policy implications. Fiscal policy, besides its primary role in stabilizing economic activity, can contribute to the achievement of environmental sustainability. Our findings indicate that public investment is more efficient than government consumption in reducing non-renewable energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis of the composition of government spending seems crucial to establish how the different spending categories can complement the efforts to conserve natural resources, promote the use of clean energy and enhance environmental quality. On the other hand, the examination of monetary policy reveals that central banks should investigate the impact of their interventions on environmental quality through the renewable and non-renewable energy markets. In the United Kingdom, conventional monetary policy proves to be effective in promoting the deployment of renewable energies and reducing emissions. In Switzerland, central bank’s efforts to stimulate the real economy through the decrease in interest rates should be accompanied by more strict environmental regulations in order to offset the rise in emissions. Moreover, the conducted analysis reveals that unconventional monetary policy can lead to enhancements of environmental quality. However, as expected, quantitative easing is not by itself capable of substantially reducing emissions and other types of environmental policies need to be implemented jointly. Although monetary policy cannot yet be considered as a policy instrument for climate change and energy, central banks should incorporate environmental issues in their welfare maximization problem.